Forecasting Models Based on Fuzzy Logic: An Application on International Coffee Prices

In recent decades, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) has become a competitive, sometimes complementary, approach to classical time series methods such as that of Box-Jenkins. This study two different purposes: theoretical purpose, presenting an overview the fuzzy logic and models, practical which is estimate forecast monthly international coffee prices during period 2000-2022. Analysing forecasting dynamics great interest producers, consumers, other market actors in managing making rational decisions. The findings showed exhibited significant fluctuations, with large increases decreases influenced mainly by level top-ranked producers. forecasted results revealed decrease next six months (Jan 2023 June 2023) expected. Based on results, it also clear FTS models are more flexible can be applied time-series variables. At same time, volatility and, sometimes, unexpected swingsin continue draw criticism raise issues regarding roles markets countries ensuring food security.